Do you smell that? Smells good. No, I am not talking about the beautiful Southern Californian air, or the summer BBQ's. Nope, I mean football season, and I guarantee that it is closer than you think. The first training camp starts with the Philadelphia Eagles on the 20th of this month (and all of the camps start by the 30th). Then, a short week later is the Hall of Fame game that kicks off the preseason. So start that countdown, because the first football action is on August 6 which is only 23 days away. After that, we only have to wait a month and a day for the real stuff to start. Oh man I am excited!
Well, mostly excited. After the Packers went 4-12 last year, I expected them to pick up the pieces and rebuild this year because I honestly believe that they are a playoff contender if they would just make some key pickups in a few positions, and not lose half of the team to injuries again. But after seeing the off-season moves, I am going to get ready for another pathetic year. I project that the Packers will go 6-10. Here is my position by position break down of why.
Coach: I am not sure why General Manager Ted Thompson got rid of Mike Sherman, who had one of the better win-loss percentages in the league. Even more mind boggling is why he hired Mike McCarthy who was the offensive coordinators for the 49ers, who had one of the most impotent offenses in the league. The Packers had one of the best defensive coordinators in Jim Bates, but McCarthy got rid of him because they didn't get alone. Boo McCarthy. You were a loser in San Francisco so whatever comes to mind, do the opposite and maybe the Packers can do well.
Quarterback: Favre is back, but is 36 years old now. As much crap as people give him for the season last year, he really did have to take the team on his back. He threw for a career high 607 attempts, while keeping a very respectable 61.3% completion rate. Favre hasn't lost it at all, and as long as he stays healthy (which he has for the past 16 years) the Packers will not have to worry about that position. However, if he goes down then there will be hell to pay. Of the other four QB's on the roster, only Aaron Rodgers has had any time in a regular season game, and that was mop up duty when the game was either already won or lost.
Running Backs: This position was hit hard last year with injuries, but that just means that the Packers are deeper there now. We got rid of Tony Fisher, and got Samkon Gado. Ahmad Green and William Henderson are starting and are rock solid.
Offensive Line: This position used to rock for the Packers, but then they decided to trade everyone away. Now it sucks. Favre was only sacked 12 times in 2004, and that jumped to 24 in 2005 after Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle were traded. This year they traded Mike Flanagan. Yeah... way to protect the 36 year old guy.
Tight Ends: Well... Bubba Franks is Functional. He... uh... gets the job done. And he is better than the other tight ends that they have. The problem is that Franks is good enough that they don't worry about the tight end position, but is bad enough that he is really not a play maker.
Wide Receivers: This is the part of the team that really makes me cry. There are 12 receivers on the Packers roster, and I can't say that any of them are that great. Quantity or quality? Of the twelve, only four have more than a year of experience, and only two of those have had a 1000 yard year - Donald Driver and Rod Gardener. It is a sad year, but hey, maybe a rookie, like second round draft pick Greg Jennings, will blow us away.
Defensive Line: After looking at the depressing state of the receivers, at least I feel confident about the D-Line. New defensive tackle Ryan Pickett was one of the only good pickups that the Packers made. Either Cullen Jenkins or Grady Jackson can take the other tackle position. On the ends are Aaron Kampman, who is really up and coming, and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (KGB) who is one of the best ends in the game. Maybe the Packers will trade these guys.
Linebackers: The Packer's first round draft pick, AJ Hawk will probably start on the outside this year, which is encouraging. Nick Barnett will probably keep his starting job in the middle, which will leave the other outside spot up for grabs. There is some good talent in the pool with Ben Taylor (over 100 tackles last year) and Brady Poppinga who is a young up and comer. I think there is enough depth here to keep the Packers fairly safe, as this was a hard hit spot for injuries last year.
Safeties: Nick Collins was a rookie that started all 16 games last year and was pretty amazing. I hope to see a lot more great stuff out of him. In addition, Mark Roman was a contributor and each should get their starting spots back without much contest.
Cornerbacks: The other big free agent pickup of the off-season was Rod Woodson who will challenge Al Harris for the starting cornerback position. As long as he stays healthy, Woodson is a great corner who will really allow the packers some depth. Harris is good, but not good enough to be a number one corner, and now Ahmad Carroll will have some time to mature into a starting cornerback. But Woodson has not played a full year since 2001 because he is always getting injured, so I am not counting on him to be a factor for very long into the season.
Kicker/ Punter: They traded Ryan Longwell to the Vikings (who they have to play twice a year) and picked up Billy Cundiff who has very little real experience. He was cut from the Cowboys last year after he only hit 62.5% of his field goal tries, including 2-5 between 30-40 yards out (which should almost be a given for an NFL kicker). BJ Sander is starting his second year of actual NFL play, so I hope that he will mature a bit, and not get injured again.
The Packers have hope, but I think that the inadequacies of the coaching staff might kill the Packers. If that doesn't do it, then the lack luster offensive line and wide receiving core will do it. Go Packers!
Friday, July 14, 2006
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